Ukraine is doomed to reforms



Sergey Jakubowski, PhD, Head of the Department of International Economic Relations of ONU, held political and economic analysis of the reform program of President Poroshenko at a briefing.

Yesterday Odessa once again saw the president and heard directly from him about the planned reforms.
Reform strategy in the long-term program was first approved by President Kuchma in 1999 and was designed for 5 years. In 2004, the tradition continued Yushchenko in 2010 – Yanukovych. But any reform program has not been implemented. The current president proposed his reform program already for 6 years, and is distinguished by its scale of planned reforms. So, already are announced 62 future reforms. Yanukovych was in the plans of 24 reforms. Targets declared by Poroshenko also more global. Thus, the country’s GDP per capita will increase to 16 thousand dollars a year, compared to the current 4 thousand.
All reform programs of all presidents alike as to the objectives and time-bound.

But already the basis of the total number of reforms and scatter purposes, we can say that the reform program of Poroshenko is not specific. Before, he and the Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk stated that reforms cannot start due to the fact that in the East of Ukraine conducted the war. Although, yesterday in Odessa, President declared that the war is a not an obstacle, and after the establishment of a parliamentary coalition will be embarking the beginning of the implementation of the planned reforms.
That their program is presented for a few days before the parliamentary elections, says of promotional nature of this event. However, not only Poroshenko uses this situation. Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is also actively promoting its political force. Previous presidents and prime also did so. Another issue is that the intellectual level of the same Yanukovych and Azarov was much lower than the current leaders, so their performances were not so impressive.

The problem of the current parliamentary elections is that they are on the corrupt election law passed in 2012 under President Yanukovych. Principal moments are closed party lists, high entrance barrier, and majority candidates’ elections in one round. What is not a new law, correcting these deficiencies, says that the parliament does not upgrade as this would be desirable, and it gets a lot of old, with a tarnished reputation, parliamentarians.

On the other hand the country needs a new parliament. Because old is illegitimate, because it is not clear, who it represents, as the needs of society have changed. In addition, its deputies spotted themselves with passing laws January 16.

New, legitimate parliament, will allow elect new, legitimate, government. This will allow clearly know who is doing what, and is responsible for what. There will appear clarity to international bodies, such as the IMF and the European Union.

These organizations provide loans to Ukraine in exchange for certain commitments and agreements. But while it was not clear to whom require them. Now, with the advent of the legitimate president, parliament and government everything will be easier.

Even if the reforms meant to be declarative, the EU and the IMF will require their implementation. The current government cannot exist without the support of these structures, so it will be forced to implement reforms. Especially, there are good examples of the rapid and effective implementation of reforms in Georgia and some Eastern European countries.

The current president will be forced to perform previously signed agreements, or share the fate of its predecessor.