Odesa, April 7, 2015 – Serhiy Yakubovsky, PhD, professor of ONU named after Mechnikov, said at a briefing on the current situation in the country, the expected reforms and the situation with the national currency.
Over the past few weeks there have been significant events that will affect the life of Ukraine’s economy and its population. In March 2014 appeared the final results in the economy, experienced a slight decline. GDP decreased by 6.8% against the forecast of 7.5%. Exporters finished the year with a good result. Exports amounted to $ 55 billion. This is a little less than $ 64 billion in 2013. But in UAH merchandise exports grew significantly. Due to the depreciation of the national currency exporters earned about 500 billion UAH.
But the massive redistribution of income has not happened. Wages are not rising; loss of “Naftogaz” amounted to about 100 billion UAH. The Government has decided to shift the deficit of state-owned companies on the population, increasing energy tariffs. For this plan to reimburse the expense of 70 billion UAH budget deficit of “Naftogaz”.
The situation in the foreign markets was favorable for Ukraine, as energy costs dropped significantly. Now Ukraine buys natural gas from Russia at $ 248 per thousand cubic meters. This is a big plus for the economy as a whole, and possibly to the public. Because the government may revise the basic price of gas, which is calculated based on the cost of gas to $ 350 per thousand cubic meters of gas.
Another positive point – the approval of the cooperation program with the IMF and the receipt of the first tranche of $ 4.8 billion. Foreign exchange reserves have increased from $ 5 billion to almost 10 billion. The government plans to end of the year to increase reserves to 18 billion dollars. This is facilitated by a change of behavior of the population with respect to foreign exchange. If before people in a panic bought it up, now sell, that allows the state to buy out its part for the formation of reserves.
Economic reforms in the country the government promises to begin on July 1, 2015. All, who have to pay VAT and are counting on his return, will submit reports in electronic form only. This will be an important step, because the most corrupt tax is VAT and electronic form submission will allow controlling it so much easier.
It is hoped that from July 1, will earn electronic tenders. They will take place online, and everyone will be able to watch as they occur. This will reduce the number of abuse.
Also from July 1 will step input of cash registers for SAP. This is a requirement of the IMF. Using SPD for tax evasion is widespread. There are heavy penalties for the misuse of cash registers. For the first time – 1 UAH, the second time – 100% of purchase, 3 times – 500% of purchase. Such a large amount of fines can lead to the fact that entrepreneurs will go into the shadows. Such innovations are needed, but it is necessary to reduce the amount of fines.
Since April 1, working pensioners pay 15% tax on pensions, higher education system because of this incurred loss, because the teachers, who receive pensions, forced to retire, because of work they lose much of its rather big pension.
Illustrative was arrest at a meeting of the Cabinet the Minister and his deputy, it only recently seemed unreal. Soon is to appear in the country head of the anti-corruption bureau and it should finally work.
Became known the factors, which influenced the rate of hryvnia in 2014. The current rate is a non-market. Journalistic investigation of the newspaper “The Mirror of the Week” showed that in the summer of 2014 was a major export of currency from Ukraine. One large financial institution exported to Cyprus in an offshore zone $ 1.8 billion last summer, which caused shortage of currency in the market, panic among the population, and the depreciation of the hryvnia, which even experts of IMF projected at 11 UAH per dollar.
This issue was discussed between the Prime Minister of Ukraine Yatsenyuk and US Vice President Biden, and then followed the loud resignation. This gives hope that the situation is under control and the hryvnia exchange rate will not decrease, and may even be strengthened.
We could live now at the rate of 11 UAH per dollar, and life would be easier. Ukraine imported drugs before on 2.5 billion dollars. And this is a big problem. The rising cost of utility tariffs offset the subsidy. But the drug due to the growth of the dollar went up so much that became inaccessible to many Ukrainians. People give all money when ill. The poor and the middle class Ukrainians have overpaid for drugs due to a fall of 30 billion UAH. It is necessary to stop the export of the country’s financial resources. This was clearly told the Americans led to the Ukrainian government. If it stops, comes financial stabilization, the hryvnia exchange rate will rise to live, and it will become easier for the population.